The Denver Nuggets face an uncomfortable question after a slow start to 2026-27: who they become if Nikola Jokic does not consistently play at an MVP level. So far, Denver has looked like a mediocre team still searching for its first statement win against top-quality competition.
A decade built around Jokic
For most of the past decade, Denver’s title hopes have depended on surrounding Jokic with enough talent. The franchise has pursued that goal through the evolution of Jamal Murray into a bona fide sidekick, the franchise-changing trade for Aaron Gordon in 2021, and the emergence of Christian Braun and Bruce Brown during the 2023 championship run. Since that title, the capped-out Nuggets have steadily lost talent and have not reached the conference finals in the past three seasons.
Denver’s constant focus on its supporting cast reflects Jokic’s dependability. The Serbian center has been the NBA’s most consistent star of the 2020s. He has finished first or second in Most Valuable Player voting for six straight seasons, ranked first in Player Efficiency Rating for six straight seasons, and carried Denver to eight straight playoff appearances and four straight 50-win campaigns.
Jokic entered this season in a position to extend that run. At 31, he averaged a triple-double last season and captained the NBA’s most efficient offense. In September, he claimed the top spot in an annual projection of the league’s top 100 players, and he told reporters he plans to sign a contract extension with the Nuggets next summer. In October, he threw an audacious behind-the-back, cross-court pass to Cameron Johnson for a corner 3-pointer, which made it tempting to believe in Denver’s chances and forget about April’s demoralizing first-round exit against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Why this isn’t the same Jokic
Small sample size caveats apply, but Jokic has started slowly. Through seven games, he is shooting 50.4% from the field, his worst mark since 2017-18, and a career-low 21.9% from deep. His 26.1 PER is his lowest since his rookie season in 2015-16, and his 23.4 points per game is his lowest output since 2019-20.
The underlying numbers raise more concern. Jokic’s average shot distance is 12 feet, tied for the longest of his career, because only 16% of his shots have come from the basket area, a career low. Meanwhile, 25% of his shots have come from beyond the arc, nearly a career high. His free throw and offensive rebound rates have also dropped sharply from last season and are trending toward career lows.
Jokic remains the only player in the league averaging 23 points, nine rebounds and nine assists, but his efficiency and forcefulness lag well behind his box score production. He ranks sixth in PER and 15th in win shares, after ranking first and second in those metrics last season.
Jokic led Denver to a blowout win over the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday, but he has not maintained that level of impact on winning or command of the paint on a night-to-night basis. The Nuggets’ offense has not looked like the juggernaut fans have come to expect. In the win over Toronto, Jokic posted 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists, which offered hope that he is pacing himself for a long season and that his poor outside shooting is a short-term slump.
Nuggets coach David Adelman expressed confidence that Jokic’s play will pick up with time. “Some of the shots we’re so accustomed to seeing that [Jokic] never misses, whether it’s a jump hook or a 15-footer, all those kinds of things, they’re coming,” Adelman said after Monday’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.
“This is a six-game sample size of one of the most efficient offensive basketball players that’s ever lived,” Adelman added. “I’ll die on that sword.”
Why these aren’t the same Nuggets
Denver’s top-heavy roster was not built to compensate for any slippage from Jokic. The Nuggets are 4-3 to start the season, including an 0-3 mark against teams with winning records, and they have heard boos from their home crowd at Ball Arena. After an overtime win over the New Orleans Pelicans in the home opener, Jokic said of those fans, “I think those fans who booed us … they’re not welcome anymore.”
Jokic’s struggles have exposed weaknesses around him. Gordon is not moving well after missing more than half of last season with injury, Johnson continues to underperform, and a new-look second unit headlined by 37-year-old DeMar DeRozan has been outscored regularly.
With Jokic drifting away from the basket, Denver ranked 26th in points in the paint before its win over the Raptors. That is a potentially serious problem because the Nuggets also rank 28th in 3-point attempts per game. Adelman says he will make a “concerted effort” to establish Jokic in the post while encouraging his role players to “get up more 3s.”
The Nuggets’ longstanding formula, an elite offense compensating for a so-so defense, looks shaky. Despite a strong start from Murray, Denver’s offense ranks 11th. The Nuggets have not ranked outside the top 10 in offense since Jokic was a rookie. “It’s too much responsibility for [Jokic and Murray],” Adelman said. “I have extreme trust in the others. They have to have trust in themselves.”
Adelman’s role requires him to keep faith in his bench, but that bench is severely untested. Rookie forward Trevon Brazile has been a pleasant surprise, but budget-friendly backups Marvin Bagley III, Bryce Hopkins, Alpha Diallo and Cam Whitmore have combined for only a handful of playoff appearances. Offseason additions DeRozan and Tyus Jones are both several years removed from any real postseason impact.
Few key figures remain from the 2023 championship team. Denver fired general manager Calvin Booth and coach Michael Malone less than two years after winning the title. Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Braun and seldom-used big man Zeke Nnaji are the only players left from the 2022-23 roster.
Denver tried to replace Brown, Michael Porter Jr. and Peyton Watson with cheaper alternatives, since Jokic, Murray and Gordon all hold significant contracts. Those efforts have largely failed. The Nuggets’ recent draft history also includes more misses than hits. Rather than building the roster with waves of young talent, Denver has signed a new batch of free agent fliers every summer, including Russell Westbrook, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, DeAndre Jordan and Reggie Jackson. None of them made a lasting impact. Denver’s bench ranks 28th in scoring and 23rd in net rating, which is a real drag for Jokic to overcome even if he recaptures his top form.
Limited options and a tight cap
Denver’s cap situation will not ease soon. If Jokic signs an extension next summer, worth up to $360 million over five years, he will join Murray and Gordon on the long-term books. Both are under contract through 2028-29. Braun’s five-year, $125 million extension, which kicked in this season, adds further strain to the Nuggets’ finances.
Denver would struggle to get value in trades involving Gordon and Braun because of their salaries. The Nuggets cannot afford to part with Murray given his strong play and track record. None of their younger players have played well enough to bring back a significant return.
If Jokic’s impact continues to lag, Denver will need to consider negotiating rather than simply handing him a maximum extension with a record average annual value of $72 million.
A five-year extension would carry Jokic through his age-36 season, and no recent center has played at an MVP level that late in his career. Tim Duncan led a balanced San Antonio Spurs team to the 2014 championship in his age-37 season, but he earned only $10.4 million on a team-friendly discount, a fraction of the maximum salary available to him.
Jokic’s slow start makes it clear Denver lacks a succession plan if its franchise center faces meaningful age-related decline or a significant injury. The Nuggets built this roster to support Jokic under the assumption that he would keep handling the heavy lifting. No rising star is waiting to take the baton, and Denver has already traded its first-round picks in 2027, 2029 and 2032.
Something will have to give. Denver has no plausible path to re-sign Jokic to an enormous extension, improve his supporting cast and avoid the NBA’s second apron penalties all at once. The Milwaukee Bucks faced a similar crossroads with Giannis Antetokounmpo last summer. They chose to trade him to the Miami Heat and pursue a full rebuild.
So far, Jokic has resisted pressure to overhaul the roster and has given no sign that he wants to leave Denver. Superstars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Antetokounmpo have changed teams in recent years in pursuit of championships, but Jokic could follow the Dirk Nowitzki model instead. Nowitzki led the Dallas Mavericks to the 2011 title, then spent eight more seasons with the franchise even though he never won another playoff series.
Like Dallas with Nowitzki, Denver has good reasons to reward Jokic’s loyalty as he ages. But this season has offered a glimpse of the organization’s murky future. Jokic can mask nearly everything that ails the Nuggets only when he plays at an MVP level. When he doesn’t, Denver’s entire plan starts to fall apart.